Wednesday, December 10, 2014

American Shale: Falling Oil Prices Boosting Global Growth Prospects

Crude oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since the financial crisis. Increased oil supplies along with weak demand, due to international economic woes, help to explain what's driving the decrease. Oil stocks have been clobbered in the financial markets. But cost savings from lower oil prices could boost the global economy and the rest of the stock market, outside the energy sector.

Friday, November 7, 2014

Currency Crisis Deepens in Russia

The ruble has lost over 23% of its value relative to the U.S. dollar over the past 12 months. Western sanctions in response to Russia's conflict with Ukraine, falling oil prices, and uncertainty over the ability of Russia's central bank to stop the run on the ruble have escalated the situation into a full-blown currency crisis.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Fed Terminates Historic Bond-Buying Stimulus Program

After years of determined effort, the Federal Reserve has phased out its bond-buying stimulus program, often referred to as quantitative easing. In deciding to terminate the stimulus initiative, the Fed stated that, "there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program." Today's unemployment rate stands at 5.9%, down from 10% at the height of the financial crisis. 

Friday, October 24, 2014

Russia's Economy Weighed Down by Geopolitics

Since Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, western governments have responded with highly restrictive sanctions. These sanctions are taking a toll on the Russian economy. In addition, Russia has been negatively affected by falling oil prices. Energy makes up a disproportionate share of the Russian economy.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Quote ... Unquote

"Buying shares with borrowed money is always speculative."

– Benjamin Graham

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Fear Strikes Back Against U.S. Bull Market

The U.S. stock market has soared to new highs since the financial crisis.  It seemed that investors were beginning to forget about risk. But global economic woes and a series of mini flash crashes have rattled the markets in the last few days.

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Global Economic Woes Could Keep Rates Down Longer

In the financial markets, the month of October often brings darkness. The U.S. stock market tumbled downwards by about 2% today, spooked by signs of global economic weakness. While the U.S. and Great Britain have growing economies and reason for hope going forward, the rest of the world has gloomy economic prospects. Even Germany is experiencing weakness, along with France, China, Japan, and others.

Friday, October 3, 2014

What Are the Underlying Weaknesses of Today's Labor Market

The headline unemployment rate has dropped below 6%, according to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Labor. Standing at 5.9%, the official unemployment rate is now at its lowest point since July of 2008. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve continues to fret about weakness or "slack" in the labor market.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Why the U.S. Dollar Is Gaining Strength

Political operatives from the left and right debate how much credit, if any, President Barack Obama should get for an improving economy. The political debate will continue no matter what happens. In the financial markets, however, foreign currency traders appear to be voting in favor of President Obama's policies.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Waiting for the Federal Reserve to Push Rates Up

Federal Reserve watchers expect that the U.S. central bank will move to push rates up at some point. However, the Fed remains cautious about providing a specific timetable for higher rates.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Why the U.S. Budget Deficit Is Getting Smaller

The latest figures from the U.S. Government indicate that the budget deficit is shrinking. For the first 11 months of the fiscal year, which runs from October 1 through September 30, the government's budget deficit fell to $589 billion.

By the end of August, the deficit was 22% lower than it was this time last year. In addition, the deficit is now at its lowest point since 2008.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Europe's Central Bankers Push Negative Rates Lower

The plot thickens as European central bankers experiment with negative rates. In a surprise move, the European Central Bank decided to push interest rates lower. Already in negative territory, the E.C.B. felt compelled to lower deposit facility rates to negative 0.2%.

Friday, August 29, 2014

Why the U.S. Economy Is Expanding at 4.2%

The U.S. economy advanced at a 4.2% annual rate in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. The government revised the second quarter GDP number higher: from 4.0% to 4.2%.

Friday, August 22, 2014

Insights From the Fed Meeting at Jackson Hole

JACKSON HOLE, Wy. Today's annual meeting of economists and central bankers took place in a secluded location surrounded by the Grand Teton Mountains. Yellowstone National Park is not too far away, north of Jackson Hole. Far removed from the stuffy boardrooms of New York and Washington, D.C., central bankers gathered to talk policy. Below is an image of the location:

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Job Openings Increasing

The number of job openings in the U.S. economy increased again in June, rising to the highest level since 2001, according to the Labor Department. This marks five straight months of increasing job openings. The following graph shows the level of job openings over the past year. 

Thursday, August 7, 2014

Consumers Are Spending Again

Despite lingering perceptions about a weak economy, consumers are spending more than ever before. The following graph shows retail sales over the past 10 years: